Today’s entry: Could you give us the numbers of in-person turn out in Dade/Broward/PB and the whole state, please? You were highlighting the Democrat mail-in voting scream and the record ballots. Jimmy Cefalo said the Republican in-person turnout in early voting and primary in person Tuesday 8/18 was higher than Democrats and it could have been a record, I cannot remember. In Dade County, the Republican Bovo won the highest percentage, though not by much but he still won.
Bottom Line: As of today, the overall certified results from Tuesday’s elections haven’t been provided by the state in a final report. However, we have a pretty good idea of what happened in last week’s August Primary elections. Statewide turnout was just over 28%. That’s the highest since 29% turned out in the 2002 August Primary elections. Turnout was 4% higher than four years ago which could be key in November. It is true that Democrats led in turnout with votes by mail, 50.5% to 34.4% by Republicans. The final vote by mail count was clearly a huge advantage for Democrats. Yet, Republicans led in early voting with 53.4% compared to 39.7% for Democrats.
On a percentage basis, the Republican advantage in early voting nearly matched the Democrat’s advantage in voting by mail, however, the total votes cast did not. With over half of all votes cast coming by mail, 298,030 more Democrats voted once you combine votes by mail and early voting totals together. Just under a million voters turned out on Election Day itself and Republicans did have an advantage though it doesn’t appear it was enough to erase the entire deficit. There were potentially encouraging signs for Republicans based on where turnout was highest and lowest. In Broward, there was a 25.9% turnout, in Miami-Dade 28.3% and Palm Beach 26.6%.
Only Miami-Dade voted at a rate than was in line with the statewide voter averages with Broward and Palm Beach counties trailing. With more registered Democrats in the Tri-County than anywhere else in Florida, this could be an encouraging sign for Republicans looking towards November.
The turnout from Florida’s August primaries was a mixed bag for the parties. Democrats can take solace in creating an enormous vote by mail advantage in advance of November. Their strategy to activate voters by mail was clearly effective and surely something they’ll look to build on between now and November. Republicans can look towards Democrats posting lower than average turnout in two of their three most important counties as an indication that Democrats aren’t as enthused to vote as the increased turnout seemed to indicate. That’s about the extent of what can analytically be taken away from what happened in last week’s elections.
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